Is Social Media a Lie? Why You Shouldn’t Believe Everything You See Online (or in Self-Help Books)

What We Miss When We Only See the Winners

Have you ever scrolled through social media and felt a pang of envy? Everyone seems to be living their best life - exotic vacations, dream cars, and seemingly effortless success. But what if that's just a curated glimpse into a much more complex reality? This is where survivorship bias creeps in. It's the tendency to focus solely on the "survivors" - the successes, the winners - while completely overlooking the countless failures and struggles that happen behind the scenes. In simpler terms, we only see the tip of the iceberg, leading to a skewed perception of reality.

Survivorship bias is a logical error where we concentrate on people or things that succeeded and overlook those that didn't because they are not visible to us. By only focusing on the "survivors," we miss out on a complete understanding of the factors that contribute to both success and failure.

Understanding survivorship bias is crucial for making informed decisions in various aspects of life. Whether you're planning your career, making investment choices, or setting personal goals, recognizing this bias can help you avoid unrealistic expectations and better assess the risks and rewards. It encourages a balanced view, reminding us that true insight comes from considering the full spectrum of experiences, not just the highlights. By acknowledging both successes and failures, we can make more grounded and strategic decisions, ultimately paving the way for genuine growth and success.

What is Survivorship Bias?

The concept of survivorship bias was famously illustrated during World War II. Military engineers were analyzing the damage on returning aircraft to determine where to add more armor. Initially, they considered reinforcing the areas that showed the most bullet holes. However, a statistician named Abraham Wald pointed out that this approach was flawed. The planes that returned were the survivors; the ones that didn’t come back were likely hit in different, more critical areas. Thus, Wald recommended reinforcing the areas where the returning planes had no bullet holes, as damage in these areas would likely have led to the planes' destruction. This insight drastically improved the planes' chances of survival.

Common Misconceptions

• Success is Easily Replicable: One common misconception is that by following the path of successful individuals or companies, one can achieve the same success. This ignores the many who followed similar paths but did not succeed.
• Ignoring the Role of Luck: People often attribute success solely to skill and hard work, overlooking the role of luck and external factors. Survivorship bias can make it seem like the successful outcomes were inevitable, ignoring the randomness of life.
• Believing Success Stories Are the Norm: Many believe that the stories of success they hear about are typical and can be easily emulated. In reality, these stories are exceptional and not representative of the average outcome.
• Focusing Only on Positive Outcomes: This bias leads people to focus on the positive aspects and successes while ignoring the failures and challenges that are equally important for a full understanding.

It's important to distinguish survivorship bias from selection bias, a close cousin. Selection bias happens when the very process of choosing a group introduces a slant. For example, a study on the effectiveness of a new workout program might only include people who are already very fit. This wouldn't be survivorship bias, because everyone in the study is technically a "survivor" (they completed the program). However, the results wouldn't be representative of the general population, because the selection process (being very fit) already skewed the data.

Survivorship bias, on the other hand, focuses on the successes within a pre-defined group, without considering those who weren't successful or simply aren't around anymore.

In simpler terms, survivorship bias is like judging a game of darts by only looking at the bullseyes. It creates a distorted picture because it ignores all the missed throws. By understanding this bias, we can start to see the full dartboard, failures and all.

By understanding and recognizing survivorship bias, we can better appreciate the complexity of success and failure. This awareness helps us make more informed decisions and sets realistic expectations, ensuring that we do not overlook the valuable lessons from those who did not "survive."

Examples of Survivorship Bias

Survivorship bias isn't just a historical footnote; it's alive and well in our everyday lives. Here are some relatable examples that might hit a little too close to home:

• Self-help Gurus and the Success Mirage: We've all seen them - bookshelves overflowing with self-help manuals promising overnight success. These narratives often focus on the journeys of a select few who achieved remarkable feats. But what about the countless others who tried and failed? Survivorship bias paints an unrealistic picture, making us believe success is guaranteed if we just follow the right steps, ignoring the role of hard work, luck, and individual circumstances.
• Social Media's Highlight Reel: Let's face it, social media is a land of carefully curated perfection. Friends post about dream vacations, job promotions, and seemingly effortless achievements. This constant barrage can lead us to believe everyone else's life is fantastic, while ours pales in comparison. But remember, social media is a highlight reel, not a documentary. People rarely share their struggles, failures, and disappointments. Survivorship bias on social media creates an illusion of universal success, breeding envy and dissatisfaction.
• Investment Advice and the Top Performers: When it comes to investing, there's a constant stream of advice highlighting the "hottest" stocks and the "next big thing." But what about the countless companies that went bust? Focusing solely on top performers with hindsight creates a distorted view of risk and potential returns. Survivorship bias in investment advice can lead to unrealistic expectations and risky decisions.
• History Through Rose-Colored Glasses: Textbooks often glorify the victories of wars and historical figures. We read about triumphant generals and groundbreaking inventions, but rarely delve into the countless battles lost or the failed attempts that paved the way for success. Survivorship bias in historical accounts creates a one-sided narrative, neglecting the importance of learning from failures and the contributions of those who didn't achieve ultimate victory.

Understanding these examples of survivorship bias in different areas can help you make more informed decisions. Recognizing the bias encourages a more comprehensive view, taking into account both successes and failures, which leads to better strategies and realistic expectations.

Why Does Survivorship Bias Matter?

Survivorship bias might seem like a harmless quirk, but it can have significant consequences in our daily lives. Here's why understanding this concept is crucial:

• Unrealistic Expectations: When we only see the successes, we develop unrealistic expectations about what's achievable. Imagine someone wanting to start a business. Bombarded with stories of overnight successes and viral sensations, they might underestimate the challenges and overestimate their chances of success. Survivorship bias paints a rosy picture, potentially leading to disappointment and discouragement when reality sets in.
• Poor Decision-Making: Biased information can lead to poor choices. If someone bases their investment strategy solely on the "hottest" stocks touted online, they might overlook diversification and risk management. Survivorship bias in financial decisions can lead to unnecessary risk exposure and potential losses.
• Feeling Inadequate: The constant barrage of success stories on social media can fuel feelings of inadequacy and envy. We compare our messy middle chapters to everyone else's highlight reels, leading to a distorted self-image and a sense of falling short. Survivorship bias can negatively impact mental well-being and self-esteem.

Imagine someone wanting to open a restaurant. Inspired by celebrity chef documentaries and social media posts showcasing glamorous kitchens and happy customers, they might believe it's a guaranteed path to success. However, survivorship bias hides the high failure rates in the restaurant industry, the grueling hours, and the cutthroat competition. Without a realistic picture, this aspiring restaurateur might make poor decisions regarding location, investment, or staffing, leading to potential failure.

By recognizing survivorship bias, we can avoid these pitfalls. We can make informed decisions based on a more balanced perspective, set realistic expectations, and celebrate the struggles that pave the way for success.

How to Avoid Survivorship Bias

Broaden Your Perspective

• Actively Seek Out and Study Failures as Well as Successes: One of the most effective ways to combat survivorship bias is to broaden your perspective by actively seeking out and studying both failures and successes. Read case studies and stories of ventures that did not succeed and try to understand the reasons behind their failures. This can provide valuable insights and a more balanced view of the factors that contribute to both success and failure. By learning from failures, you can gain a deeper understanding of the risks involved and how to mitigate them.

Critical Thinking

• Question Why Certain Cases Are Highlighted and Others Are Not: Develop a habit of critical thinking by questioning why certain cases are highlighted and others are not. When you hear about a success story, ask yourself about the unseen failures. Why did this particular story receive attention? What are the factors that are not being discussed? This approach helps you to recognize the selective nature of the information you are exposed to and encourages a more thorough evaluation of the data.

Data-Driven Decisions

• Use Comprehensive Data That Includes Both Successful and Unsuccessful Outcomes: Make data-driven decisions by ensuring you are using comprehensive data that includes both successful and unsuccessful outcomes. In business, this means analyzing not only the companies that thrived but also those that failed. In personal development, look at the habits and strategies of a wide range of individuals, not just the successful ones. By considering all available data, you can make more informed decisions and avoid the pitfalls of survivorship bias.

Realistic Expectations

• Set Goals Based on a Full Understanding of Potential Risks and Rewards: To set realistic expectations, base your goals on a full understanding of the potential risks and rewards. Acknowledge that success is not guaranteed and that there are many variables at play. Understand the challenges and difficulties that others have faced and factor these into your planning. This will help you to set achievable goals and prepare for the obstacles you might encounter along the way.

Focus on Your Own Journey

• Stop comparing yourself to the seemingly perfect lives portrayed online. Remember, social media is a carefully curated stage. Celebrate your own milestones and focus on your personal growth, not someone else's highlight reel.

Real-Life Applications

Career Planning

• When planning your career, it’s important to consider both the successes and failures in your chosen field. Seek out mentors and professionals who can provide a comprehensive view of the industry. Ask them about the challenges they faced and the mistakes they made along the way. Additionally, research not only the success stories but also the career paths of those who didn’t achieve their goals. This will give you a realistic understanding of the industry’s demands and help you prepare for potential setbacks. By taking a balanced view, you can make more informed career decisions and set realistic expectations for your professional journey.

Investments

• When it comes to investments, thorough research is key to avoiding survivorship bias. Don’t just focus on the top-performing stocks or funds. Look into the history of investments that failed and understand why they didn’t succeed. Diversify your portfolio to spread risk across different asset classes and sectors. Consider consulting with a financial advisor who can provide insights into both successful and unsuccessful investments. By taking a comprehensive approach to research and diversifying your investments, you can make more informed decisions and reduce the risk of being overly influenced by survivorship bias.

Personal Growth

• Setting realistic personal development goals requires an understanding of both successes and failures. When setting your goals, take into account the experiences of people who have tried and failed along the same path. Reflect on the reasons for their failures and consider how you can avoid similar pitfalls. Set specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) goals. Break your larger goals into smaller, manageable steps and celebrate your progress along the way. By acknowledging the potential challenges and learning from others’ experiences, you can set realistic personal development goals that are both ambitious and attainable.

Conclusion

Understanding survivorship bias is essential for making informed and realistic decisions in all areas of life. By recognizing this bias, we can avoid the pitfalls of overly optimistic views based on incomplete data. Whether in career planning, investments, or personal growth, considering both successes and failures leads to a more balanced and accurate understanding of what it takes to achieve our goals.

I encourage you to apply this awareness of survivorship bias in your daily decisions. Broaden your perspective, practice critical thinking, rely on comprehensive data, and set realistic expectations. By doing so, you'll be better equipped to navigate the complexities of success and failure, making more strategic and informed choices.

"Success is stumbling from failure to failure with no loss of enthusiasm." – Winston Churchill

Being aware of survivorship bias is the first step towards making informed decisions. Seek out a balanced perspective, challenge skewed information, and celebrate your own unique journey. Remember, success often lies not in a straight shot to the top, but in the resilience to learn and grow from the inevitable setbacks. So, ditch the comparison trap and embrace the power of informed choices. The world needs your unique story, not a copy of someone else's highlight reel. Go forth and conquer your goals, armed with the knowledge that true success is a journey, not just a destination.

To support you further on this journey, I invite you to subscribe to my free email course, The “Rich Habits” Challenge: Master the 28 Habits to Go from Stuck to Soaring! This course offers daily inspiration and actionable tips designed to help you break free from limiting habits and embrace a life of growth and success. Join now and start transforming your habits, mindset, and life.